Wednesday, December 28, 2011

The Structure of A Stanley Cup Champion


The Characteristics of A Stanley Cup Champion 


Every year at the beginning of the season, all the analysts make their predictions as to who will win the Stanley Cup. Come midseason, some reevaluate, some hang onto their original picks, and some have absolutely no clue due to the craziness of the NHL regular season. However, is there a predictor that can help us determine which team will win the Stanley Cup? Are there certain characteristics that a Stanley Cup champion has that other teams seem to lack? I went back to the 1967-1968 NHL season (the first season with more than the Original 6), to see if there were any characteristics that all of the Stanley Cup Champions seemed to have in common. I looked at almost every statistic that is available to us, from simple ones such as goals for and against, to even strength goals for vs. goals against, and the record in the 2nd half of the season. The results are posted in 3 separate Excel screen shots below (I'm not the most tech-savvy person and so if anybody has a better idea on how to do that let me know!).







So after taking a run through the results (Again apologies for having to display it in this format), you can see a few things that stand out as potential things in common for championship teams:

1. Early on, having the best record in the NHL almost equaled winning the Stanley Cup. Between 1967-1968 and 1978-1979, 8 of the 11 teams that won the Stanley Cup had the best record in the league. Since the lockout after the 1993-1994 season, we've had just 4 teams finish with the best record and win the Stanley Cup. However, that's not saying that the lower seeds are rising up to win Stanley Cups. Since 94-95, every team that has won the Stanley Cup has finished 1st or 2nd in their division, with a division winner taking the Cup 11 of those 15 years. So winning your division is a big plus in today's NHL for a team trying to win the Cup. Common sense backs this up as you supposedly have an "easier" path through the playoffs and you have home ice longer. 

2. So the road record actually does matter...at least in recent years. We always hear about how good road teams make good playoff teams and good Stanley Cup contenders, but this study didn't exactly back that up until recent years. If you look at the chart, 10 of the 43 teams looked at actually had sub .500 road records, with a couple of teams actually finishing 6 or 7 games under .500! However, since the first lockout (94-95) that trend has changed dramatically. Since the lockout in 94-95, every team has had a winning road record and only 3 teams have failed to win more than 20 road games (96-97 Wings, 97-98 Wings, and 99-00 Devils). In recent years we've seen teams be dominant on the road and that is a fairly good predictor of Stanley Cup success. 

3. You have to score goals. This may seem like a no-brainer statement, but I was shocked as to just how many champions finished in the top 10 in the NHL in goals scored.  In fact, in the entire study, just 4 teams finished outside of the top 10 in the NHL in scoring and the 79-90 Islanders and the 82-83 Islanders are the only two teams to win the Stanley Cup without finishing in the top half of the NHL in scoring. However, as you can see, these two teams did have the 4th best and 1st best defenses in the NHL respectively. 

4. Defense used to and still wins you championships...unless you are the Pittsburgh Penguins? This was another striking find for me. In the earlier part of the study, defense = championships. From 1972-1973 to 1978-1979 the team that was either 1st or tied for 1st in goals against won the Stanley Cup. That's impressive. In the past couple of years, we've seen defense slowly start to creep back in as a top 7 defensive team has won the Cup 4 of the past 5 years (08-09 Pittsburgh being the exception which brings me to my next interesting find). Another interesting anomaly - the Pittsburgh Penguins in their 3 championship years finished 18th, 20th, and 18th in goals against. That's a bad sign for Pens fans this year as they are currently in the top 10 (9th). Other than those crazy Penguins teams, only 1 team in the last 43 seasons has won the Stanley Cup with a defense that was not top 10 - The 05-06 Hurricanes, who were bolstered by a top 3 scoring team. Defense still wins championships unless your colors are black and gold, and in the black and gold case, you had/have super humans playing for you. That's probably why. 

5. Another really cool trend I noticed was the 2nd half record of teams. I wanted to chart this because you always here how teams are "coming in hot" to the playoffs and I wanted to see if it actually held up. Well it did initially, but the trend has slowed in recent years. From 1967-1968 to 1982-83, 14 of the 16 Stanley Cup Champions had a better record in the 2nd half of the season than in the 1st. However, from 1983-1984 to present day, the trend has slowed significantly. Of the 27 champions in that time span, 16 have actually had worse records in the 2nd half of the season, compared to just 9 having better 2nd halves. Two teams had no change in their record during the season. But for the teams that had worse records, some had substantially worse records. For example, the 91-92 Penguins started 22-14-4 (.600 winning%), but finished just 17-18-5 (.488 winning %). The 97-98 Red Wings, fresh off their first Stanley Cup in 42 years, came out hot, starting 24-9-8 (.683%), but finished just 20-14-7 (.573%). The 06-07 Ducks had a great start to their season, starting 28-7-6 (.756%), but they closed with a 20-13-8 record (.585%). Another great example is the 07-08 Red Wings. They came out really hot, starting 30-8-3 (.768%), putting them on pace for a 126 point season! However, they finished 24-13-4 (.634%), slowing down significantly and actually enduring a 1-8-1 stretch at the end of February. Essentially, it looks like how you finish doesn't matter as much anymore, as only 1 of the past 6 champions has finished with a better record in the 2nd half than in the 1st. 


6. Another interesting trend that has recently developed - special teams are starting to lose their importance in terms of being an integral part of a championship team. Between 1967-1968 and 1991-1992, just one team that won the Cup finished with a powerplay outside of the top 10 (89-90 Oilers). If you extend that span from 67-68 all the way through 2001-2002, you only have 3 teams outside of the top 10 in powerplay percentage. However, since 2001-2002, we've had 6 of the 8 Championship teams have powerplays not just outside of the top 10 - but not even in the top half of the NHL. Our past 3 Cup Champions have had the 20th, 16th, and 20th ranked powerplays respectively. In terms of the penalty kill,  this past decade has seen teams with the 19th, 10th, 19th, and 16th ranked powerplays win and only 3 top 5 PK teams have won a Cup this past decade. That's a stark contrast again to earlier years. I firmly believe this is due to the lack of penalties that have been called in recent years. In a previous blog, I noted how penalty calls are at an all time low, with last year having just 291 penalties called on each team on average (lowest number in more than 30 years). Because there are fewer powerplay opportunities/penalty kill situations, teams no longer have to be experts to win. More of the game is played at even strength and that brings me to what I think is the most critical factor in determining a Stanley Cup champion. 

7. Even strength play is at an all time high in terms of importance. When going back through and looking at the ratio of goals for/against at even strength, I did not expect it to turn out as it did. The results are stunning in terms of defining a Stanley Cup team. Since 1967-1968, only one team has finished outside of the top 10 in Even Strength F/A and that team finished 11th (03-04 Lightning). Of the 43 years looked at, the team that finished first or second won 22 Stanley Cups (51%). Only 9 teams have won the Stanley Cup since 67-68 that finished outside of the top 5 in Even Strength F/A. That's absolutely unbelievable, but it also makes a lot of sense. Hockey is played at even strength a majority of the time, and especially in the past two years with the decrease in penalties. Whichever team that can dominate that time will more often than not win their games. If you look at the table, Boston is T-1st in 10-11 - they were tied with their opponent in the Cup Finals, the Canucks. Even strength play has always been a significant factor in determining who wins, but nowadays, it has a heightened importance. With that being said, let's see how today's teams stack up, and let's see if we can narrow them down to a handful of contenders. 

Here is a listing of the teams this year and how they are fairing in the categories that are being measured:





- First thing, we want to look at even strength. No team since the 67-68 expansion has ever won the Stanley Cup with less than a 1.07 Even Strength F/A. That allows us to eliminate:

Anaheim Ducks
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Calgary Flames
Carolina Hurricanes
Chicago Blackhawks
Colorado Avalanche
Columbus Blue Jackets
Dallas Stars
Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
Minnesota Wild
Montreal Canadiens
Nashville Predators
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Ottawa Senators
Philadelphia Flyers
Phoenix Coyotes
Pittsburgh Penguins
San Jose Sharks
St. Louis Blues
Tampa Bay Lightning
Toronto Maple Leafs
Vancouver Canucks
Washington Capitals 
Winnipeg Jets

So we are now left with the following contenders (listed in order of their even strength F/A)
- Boston Bruins
- Detroit Red Wings
- San Jose Sharks
- St. Louis Blues
- New York Rangers
- Vancouver Canucks
- Philadelphia Flyers

From there we can further eliminate because we know that since 1967-1968, only 2 teams have finished outside the top 15 in goals for, and just 4 have finished outside the top 10. So we'll go ahead and eliminate those teams outside the top 10 in scoring.

Boston Bruins
Detroit Red Wings
San Jose Sharks
St. Louis Blues
New York Rangers
Vancouver Canucks
Philadelphia Flyers 

And then there were 5. Another elimination criterion I think we could use here is eliminate any team that is outside of the top 15 in defense. In today's league, no team will win the Stanley Cup if your defense is not at least in the top 15. Also, aside from the Pittsburgh Penguins franchise (90-91, 91-92, 08-09), only one team has won the Stanley Cup that was outside of the top 10 in defense so I think it is safe to eliminate the teams in the bottom 15 of the NHL in goals against. 

Boston Bruins
Detroit Red Wings
New York Rangers
Vancouver Canucks
Philadelphia Flyers 

So we are now down to 2 teams from each conference, the Wings and Canucks of the West, and the Bruins and Rangers of the East. From here, any elimination becomes tricky. We've seen that special teams has become a little less important over the years, so I'm reluctant to eliminate any team based on special teams. I think the next and final elimination criterion I can use is the balanced scoring. Since the 67-68 season, no team has won the Stanley Cup with fewer than 8 10-goal scorers. And of those 43 years, only 11 have had fewer than double digit 10-goal scorers. We can clearly see when defense became a premium in the pre-2nd lockout years as we had a run of 5 straight teams winning the Cup with less than 10 10-goal scorers. However, the balanced scoring seems to be back as the past 4 Cup Winners have had at least 10 10-goal scorers. So I will eliminate the teams that are on pace to have 9 or fewer 10-goal scorers. Obviously things can change as we are just arriving at the midway point of the NHL season and a player could have a torrid 2nd half of the year and totally screw up any projections.   

Boston Bruins
Detroit Red Wings
New York Rangers
Vancouver Canucks

I think this final elimination criterion is a bit weak, but I think I can make a valid case for it. Since 67-68, 13 of the 42 teams (31%) had an even strength F/A ratio of 1.23 or less. If you remove the pre-2nd lockout period (94-95 through 03-04), that percentage reduces to 23.8%. If you remove the first 2 years back from the 2nd lockout when powerplays were at all time highs and thus the amount of even strength play was reduced significantly, the percentage drops to just 19.0% or 8 teams. Even strength play now is approaching an all time high and with three of the past four champions having been at 1.25 or higher (again 08-09 Pittsburgh is the exception), I have to lean towards the teams that are above 1.25


Boston Bruins
Detroit Red Wings
Vancouver Canucks

An interesting fact: If Boston keeps up their current Even Strength F/A ratio (1.89) and wins the Championship, they will have the 5th highest mark for a champion since 1967-1968, behind only the 74-75 Flyers (2.12), 75-76 Canadiens (1.96), 76-77 Canadiens (2.31), and the 77-78 Canadiens (1.96). The Red Wings mark isn't too shabby, as it would rank 8th among champions if they went on to win. 

So there you have it. Balanced scoring, strong even strength play, a strong defense, top 10 offense, and a little bit of luck are all essential to a team winning the Stanley Cup. Since we are only at the midway point of the NHL season, a lot can change and thus this blog will have to be revisited at season's end. That is why I was very reluctant to use road record as a predictor in this blog because a team can get hot on the road in the 2nd half of the season so I did not want to eliminate anybody that could get hot such as St. Louis or Detroit, two teams that have sub .500 road records right now, but will more than likely pick it up in the 2nd half. As of the midway point, the Detroit Red Wings, Vancouver Canucks, and Boston Bruins are all exhibiting the characteristics of a Stanley Cup Champion. We'll see how the 2nd half plays out and we'll see if a team gets hot and actually wins the Championship, as that has been a rarity in the past few years. There are so many things that can change that this is definitely not a prediction I would bet the house on, but like I said, at the midway point, these three teams look very strong, especially Boston. 







Prashanth Iyer 







Tuesday, December 27, 2011

The demise of the 50 goal scorer and 100 point player in the NHL

As of 12:32 pm on December 27th, 2011, the 2011-2012 NHL season is on pace to have just two 100 point scorers (Evgeni Malkin of the Pittsburgh Penguins and Claude Giroux of the Philadelphia Flyers).  So what has happened? Wasn't the lockout supposed to open the game back up and introduce more scoring? Well I'll take a look all the way back to Gretzky's time and see what has changed, and then look at what has changed since the year before the lockout and all the years after the lockout.

In the following list, I listed the number of players that scored 50 or more goals that year as well as the number of goals scored by the player that was 20th in goal scoring just to show the range of scoring. Seasons with fewer than 5 50 goal scorers are bolded.

1979-1980 --> 9 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Gare - 56). 20th best --> (McDonald - 40)
1980-1981 --> 8 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Bossy - 68). 20th best --> (Stastny - 39)
1981-1982 --> 10 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Gretzky - 92). 20th best --> (Napier - 40)
1982-1983 --> 7 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Gretzky - 71). 20th best ---> (Ogrodnick - 41)
1983-1984 --> 8 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Gretzky - 87). 20th best --> (Coffey - 40)
1984-1985 --> 9 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Gretzky 73). 20th best --> (MacLean - 41)
1985-1986 --> 6 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Kurri - 68). 20th best --> (Foligno - 41)
1986-1987 --> 5 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Gretzky - 62). 20th best --> (Gallant - 38)
1987-1988 --> 8 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Lemieux - 70). 20th best --> (Olczyk - 42)
1988-1989 --> 6 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Lemieux - 85). 20th best --> (Ridley - 41)
1989-1990 --> 8 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Hull - 72). 20th best --> (Andreychuk - 40)
1990-1991 --> 4 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Hull - 86). 20th best --> (Gagner - 40)
1991-1992 --> 4 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Hull - 70). 20th best --> (Mogilny - 39)
1992-1993 --> 14 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Selanne/Mogilny - 76). 20th best --> (Oates - 45)
1993-1994 --> 9 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Bure - 60). 20th best --> (Kudelski - 40)
1994-1995 (LOCKOUT YEAR) --> 0 with 50 goals
1995-1996 --> 8 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Lemieux - 69). 20th best --> (C. Lemieux - 39)
1996-1997 --> 4 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Tkachuk - 52). 20th best --> (Recchi - 34)
1997-1998 --> 4 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Bondra/Selanne - 52). 20th best --> (Barnes - 30)
1998-1999 --> 0 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Selanne - 47). 20th best --> (Hull - 32)
1999-2000 --> 1 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Bure - 58). 20th best --> (Murray - 29)
2000-2001 --> 3 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Bure - 59). 20th best --> (Lemieux - 35)
2001-2002 --> 1 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Iginla - 52). 20th best --> (Yashin - 32)
2002-2003 --> 1 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Hejduk - 50). 20th best --> (Mogilny - 33)
2003-2004 --> 0 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Iginla - 41). 20th best --> (Lang - 30)
2004-2005 --> LOCKOUT NO SEASON
2005-2006 --> 5 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Cheechoo - 56). 20th best --> (Satan - 35)
2006-2007 --> 2 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Lecavalier - 52). 20th best --> (Smyth - 36)
2007-2008 --> 3 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Ovechkin - 65). 20th best --> (Parise - 32)
2008-2009 --> 1 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Ovechkin - 56). 20th best --> (Arnott - 33)
2009-2010 --> 3 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Crosby/Stamkos - 51). 20th best --> (Samuelsson - 30)
2010-2011 --> 1 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Perry - 50). 20th best --> (Crosby - 32)
2011-2012 (projected) --> 1 with 50 or more goals (Leader - Gaborik - 53). 20th best --> (Marchand - 37)

So what does this list tell us? The last few years have been almost on par with the pre-lockout numbers. The game was supposed to open up and yet goal scoring has barely budged. Looking at the '80's, you can see that if you scored 40 goals, you barely cracked the top 20 and in the case of 92-93, 40 goals put you outside of the top 25! Let's take a look at how the 100 point seasons have corresponded. Seasons with fewer than 5 100 point scorers are bolded.

In this following list, I will list the number of players that had 100 points that year as well as the number of points the 20th highest scorer had just to show the range of scoring for that year.
1979-1980 --> 8 with 100 or more points (Leader- Gretzky/Dionne - 137). 20th best --> (Shutt - 89)
1980-1981 --> 12 with 100 or more points (Leader - Gretzky - 164). 20th best --> (Dunlop - 87)
1981-1982 --> 13 with 100 or more points (Leader - Gretzky - 212). 20th best --> (Pederson - 92)
1982-1983 --> 11 with 100 or more points (Leader - Gretzky - 196). 20th best --> (Smyl - 88)
1983-1984 --> 12 with 100 or more points (Leader - Gretzky - 205). 20th best --> (Propp - 92)
1984-1985 --> 16 with 100 or more points (Leader - Gretzky - 208). 20th best --> (Goulet - 95)
1985-1986 --> 13 with 100 or more points (Leader - Gretzky - 215). 20th best --> (Ciccarelli - 89)
1986-1987 --> 7 with 100 or more points (Leader - Gretzky - 183). 20th best --> (Nicholls - 81)
1987-1988 --> 12 with 100 or more points (Leader - Lemieux - 168). 20th best --> (Larmer - 89)
1988-1989 --> 9 with 100 or more points (Leader - Lemieux - 199). 20th best --> (Sandstrom - 88)
1989-1990 --> 13 with 100 or more points (Leader - Gretzky - 142). 20th best (Neely - 92)
1990-1991 --> 11 players with 100 or more points (Leader - Gretzky -163). 20th best --> (Francis - 87)
1991-1992 --> 9 players with 100 or more points (Leader - Lemieux - 131). 20th best --> (Mullen - 87)
1992-1993 --> 21 players with 100 or more points (Leader - Lemieux - 160). 20th best --> (Francis - 100)
1993-1994 --> 8 players with 100 or more points (Leader - Gretzky - 130). 20th best (Bourque - 91)
1994-1995 (LOCKOUT YEAR) --> 0 with 100 or more
1995-1996 --> 12 with 100 or more points (Leader - Lemieux - 161). 20th best --> (Damphousse - 94)
1996-1997 --> 2 with 100 or more points (Leader - Lemieux - 122). 20th best --> (Hull - 82)
1997-1998 --> 1 with 100 or more points (Leader - Jagr - 102). 20th best --> (Lindros - 71)
1998-1999 --> 3 with 100 or more points (Leader - Jagr - 127). 20th best --> (Roenick - 72)
1999-2000 --> 0 with 100 or more points (Leader - Jagr - 96). 20th best --> (Lidstrom - 73)
2000-2001 --> 2 with 100 or more points (Leader - Jagr - 121). 20th best --> (Lang - 80)
2001-2002 --> 0 with 100 or more points (Leader - Iginla - 96). 20th best --> (Alfredsson - 71)
2002-2003 --> 3 with 100 or more points (Leader - Forsberg - 106). 20th best --> (Jagr - 77)
2003-2004 --> 0 with 100 or more points (Leader - St. Louis - 94). 20th best --> (Gomez - 70)
2004-2005 --> NO NHL SEASON
2005-2006 --> 7 with 100 or more points (Leader - Thornton - 125). 20th best --> (McDonald - 85)
2006-2007 --> 7 with 100 or more points (Leader - Crosby - 120). 20th best --> (D. Sedin - 84)
2007-2008 --> 2 with 100 or more points (Leader - Ovechkin - 112). 20th best --> (Savard - 78)
2008-2009 --> 3 with 100 or more points (Leader - Malkin - 113). 20th best --> (Ribeiro - 78)
2009-2010 --> 4 with 100 or more points (Leader - H. Sedin - 112). 20th best --> (Perry - 76)
2010-2011 --> 1 with 100 or more points (Leader - D. Sedin - 104). 20th best --> (Marleau - 73)
2011-2012 (projected) --> 2 with 100 or more points (Leader - Giroux - 112). 20th best --> (Neal - 79)

So just by looking at this table, we can see a few things. Between 1979-1980 and the first lockout in 1994-1995, there was never a season that had less than 7 100 point scorers. We had a high of 21 100 point scorers in 1992-1993 and a low of 7 in 1986-1987. However, there have been 12 seasons of the past 31 that have had fewer than 5 100 point scorers and all of them have occurred in the 15 years.

What are some of the factors that have contributed to this?
1. Goaltenders of the early '80s still predominantly used the standup style. The standup style involved playing upright and using the legs as a reactive device instead of a blocking device as they are used today. What I mean by that is when a shot came, a goaltender would take their leg and make a move to block the shot with their leg pad, by kicking at the puck or redirecting to a corner. Nowadays, goaltenders will drop into a "position" and the puck will carom of their pads without them actually making an attacking move at the puck. The butterfly position that we see nowadays did not really become the predominant goaltending strategy until Patrick Roy arrived in the mid-80's. Glenn Hall and Tony Esposito are widely credited with the creation of the butterfly style, but it never reached prominence until Patrick Roy. Another caveat that came with that goaltending style is the adoption of different equipment. Equipment was now designed to aid in the butterfly style. The butterfly calls for a goaltender to block and trap more shots instead of catching them with a glove, so more heavily armored pads were manufactured and thus the Koho, Reebok, and Vaughn pads were born.
2. Along those same lines, equipment has vastly changed from 1979-1980 to today. Goaltenders' pads have increased vastly in size over the years and one of the biggest changes has been the introduction of the "Box" pad in the late 90's. As you can see, the introduction of the box pad seems to correspond with having just 8 100 point scorers between 1998-1999 and 2003-2004. These box pads are specifically designed for the butterfly style and allow a goaltender to keep the pad face perpendicular to the ice at all times. The NHL is currently working on reducing the size of the goaltenders pads (they are down to 11" in width, and the height must be proportional to the player's height), but that's not enough, because fact of the matter is, goaltenders themselves are much bigger today.
3. In 1979-1980, the Vezina Trophy winners were Don Edwards who posted a 27-9-12 record and a 2.57 GAA and Bob Sauve who posted a 20-8-4 record and a 2.36 GAA. Edwards was  5'9" 160 lbs and Sauve was 5'8" 175 lbs. Below, you will see another chart of the Vezina winner, their height, and weight, and you will see how it has vastly changed. All heights and weights are taken from hockeyreference.com. Goaltenders with heights 5'10" or below are bolded

1979-1980 - Don Edwards 5'9" 160 lbs; Bob Sauve 5'8" 175 lbs
1980-1981 - Dennis Herron 5'11" 165 lbs; Michael Larocque 5'10" 200 lbs; Rich Sevigny 5'8" 172 lbs
1981-1982 - Billy Smith 5'10" 185 lbs
1982-1983 - Pete Peeters 6'1" 195 lbs
1983-1984 - Tom Barrasso 6'3" 210 lbs
1984-1985 - Pelle Lindbergh 5'9" 165 lbs
1985-1986 - John Vanbiesbrouck 5'8" 176 lbs
1986-1987 - Ron Hextall 6'3" 192 lbs
1987-1988 - Grant Fuhr 5'10" 201 lbs
1988-1989 - Patrick Roy 6'2" 185 lbs
1989-1990 - Patrick Roy 6'2" 185 lbs
1990-1991 - Ed Belfour 5'11" 202 lbs
1991-1992 - Patrick Roy 6'2" 185 lbs
1992-1993 - Ed Belfour 5'11" 185 lbs
1993-1994 - Dominik Hasek 6'1" 166 lbs
1994-1995 - Dominik Hasek 6'1" 166 lbs
1995-1996 - Jim Carey 6'2" 205 lbs
1996-1997 - Dominik Hasek 6'1" 166 lbs
1997-1998 - Dominik Hasek 6'1" 166 lbs
1998-1999 - Dominik Hasek 6'1" 166 lbs
1999-2000 - Olaf Kolzig 6'3" 224 lbs
2000-2001 - Dominik Hasek 6'1" 166 lbs
2001-2002 - Jose Theodore 5'11" 185 lbs
2002-2003 - Martin Brodeur 6'2" 215 lbs
2003-2004 - Martin Brodeur 6'2" 215 lbs
2005-2006 - Miikka Kiprusoff 6'1" 184 lbs
2006-2007 - Martin Brodeur 6'2" 215 lbs
2007-2008 - Martin Brodeur 6'2" 215 lbs
2008-2009 - Tim Thomas 5'11" 201 lbs
2009-2010 - Ryan Miller 6'2" 175 lbs
2010-2011 - Tim Thomas 5'11" 201 lbs

So taking a look at this, we see that in the early part of the 80's, the Vezina winners were much shorter and much lighter. From 1988-1989 on, no goaltender won the Vezina that was shorter than 5'11". To even further hammer home that point, below is a list of the goaltenders taken in the 2011 NHL draft. Notice how only one of them is below 6 feet in height. That height differential really allows goaltenders to take away almost all angles when they drop to the butterfly, forcing forwards to really pick corners.

2011 NHL Draft - Goaltenders Selected
#38 - Magnus Hellberg - 6'5" 185 lbs
#39 - John Gibson - 6'2" 188 lbs
#49 - Christopher Gibson - 6' 185 lbs
#62 - Samu Perhonen - 6'3" 175 lbs
#71 - David Honzik - 6'3" 195 lbs
#88 - Jordan Binnington - 6'1" 156 lbs
#117 - Steffen Soberg - 5'11" 165 lbs
#132 - Niklas Lundstrom - 6'2" 188 lbs
#157 - Jason Kasdorf -  6'3" 180 lbs
#161 - Stephen Michalek -  6'2" 183 lbs
#163 - Matt Mahalak - 6'2" 183 lbs
#164 - Laurent Brossoit - 6'2" 178 lbs
#178 - Adam Wilcox - 6' 170 lbs
#181 - Lars Volden - 6'3" 200 lbs
#182 - Frans Tuohimaa - 6'2" 180 lbs
#188 - Anton Forsberg - 6'2" 176 lbs
#190 - Garret Sparks - 6'2" 200 lbs
#211 - Johan Mattsson - 6'3" 200 lbs

4. Powerplays are down big time. Below is a list of the average power plays the NHL team had during a season and the average amount of power play goals scored. Also on the powerplays that teams are getting, they are not converting at the same rate as the teams in the '80's due to the increase in padding which allows for more players to block shots.

1979-1980 - 280 --> 61 PPG scored --> 21.9%
1980-1981 - 340 --> 77 PPG scored --> 22.5%
1981-1982 - 320 --> 73 PPG scored --> 22.9%
1982-1983 - 310 --> 71 PPG scored --> 22.9%
1983-1984 - 336 --> 74 PPG scored --> 21.9%
1984-1985 - 321 --> 71 PPG scored --> 22.2%
1985-1986 - 370 --> 82 PPG scored --> 22.1%
1986-1987 - 344 --> 72 PPG scored --> 21.0%
1987-1988 - 437 --> 89 PPG scored --> 20.3%
1988-1989 - 403 --> 85 PPG scored --> 21.0%
1989-1990 - 367 --> 76 PPG scored --> 20.8%
1990-1991 - 366 --> 71 PPG scored --> 19.4%
1991-1992 - 402 --> 77 PPG scored --> 19.2%
1992-1993 - 443 --> 87 PPG scored --> 19.6%
1993-1994 - 407 --> 76 PPG scored --> 18.6%
1994-1995 - 209 --> 37 PPG scored --> 17.7% (LOCKOUT SHORTENED SEASON - 48 GAMES)
1995-1996 - 413 --> 74 PPG scored --> 17.9%
1996-1997 - 336 --> 55 PPG scored --> 16.3%
1997-1998 - 380 --> 57 PPG scored --> 15.1%
1998-1999 - 359 --> 57 PPG scored --> 15.8%
1999-2000 - 331 --> 53 PPG scored --> 16.2%
2000-2001 - 376 --> 63 PPG scored --> 16.6%
2001-2002 - 338 --> 53 PPG scored --> 15.8%
2002-2003 - 363 --> 60 PPG scored --> 16.4%
2003-2004 - 348 --> 57 PPG scored --> 16.5%
2005-2006 - 480 --> 85 PPG scored --> 17.7%
2006-2007 - 398 --> 70 PPG scored --> 17.6%
2007-2008 - 351 --> 62 PPG scored --> 17.8%
2008-2009 - 341 --> 65 PPG scored --> 19.0%
2009-2010 - 304 --> 56 PPG scored --> 18.2%
2010-2011 - 291 --> 52 PPG scored --> 18.0%
2011-2012 - 307 --> 54 PPG scored --> 17.4% (projected)

So if you think about it, we complain a lot nowadays about how there are so many penalties called and to just "let the players play like the good ol' days". However, the "good ol' days" were filled with penalties and an incredible amount of power play goals. Looking at the 1987-1988 season, there were 89 power play goals scored on average per team. That means the average team was scoring a power play goal a night! Nowadays, the average team scores a powerplay goal every other game. That makes a huge difference in the scoring numbers and provides a real solid explanation as to why goal scoring is down in this era. Looking at the 05-06 season, immediately after the lockout, we see that the league was calling penalties at a record clip, the highest amount of penalties called in the past 31 years. However, as I mentioned before, teams did not convert those powerplays as well due to the increased pad size of players, the increase in shot blocking, and the increase in overall size of the players. It is much harder to get your shot through in today's game. However, we can also see that the league has rapidly gone away from that whistle-filled game, dropping almost 100 penalties the following year and hitting a 30 year low in 2010-2011 by calling just an average of 291 penalties on each team. 2011-2012 is projected to be right around those numbers so maybe we've hit a period of consistency.

5. The invention of defensive systems. Jacques Lemaire is widely credited with the instillation of the neutral zone trap into the game of hockey. During his first tenure with the Devils (1993-1998), Lemaire instituted a trap where all 5 players on the ice would clog the neutral zone, making it near impossible to stickhandle the puck into the offensive zone. Because the two-line pass rule was still in effect, opposing teams were forced to stickhandle the puck into the neutral zone before making a pass through the trap to start on offense. This trap, which was soon implemented by other teams, also used a lot of "clutching and grabbing", and a significant amount of minor hooks to slow the opposition through the neutral zone. It actually got so bad, that it prompted Mario Lemieux's first retirement. Other defensive systems were also instituted such as the "left wing lock" which was used heavily by the Detroit Red Wings under Scotty Bowman. The lock involved having the left winger drop back and essentially function as a third defenseman, making it nearly impossible for the opposing team to generate odd man rushes. This system was also employed around the same time as Lemaire's neutral zone trap and it resulted in some significant changes. At the time of their implementation (roughly 1993), the league was coming off a high of 21 100 point scorers and 14 50 goal scorers. Just 4 years later, those numbers were down to 4 50 goal scorers and 1 100 point scorer. These traps existed all the way until the 2nd NHL lockout in 2004-2005. The 2nd NHL lockout helped stop these traps by allowing 2 line passes as well as forcing referees to call any and all obstruction penalties. This made it very difficult for the defense to stop opposing forwards coming with speed through the neutral zone and theoretically "opened" the game back up.

So what have we learned from this? Scoring in the NHL is down for sure, and there are a variety of causes for it. First and foremost, the size of goaltenders has increased dramatically as well as the size of their equipment. With the introduction of the butterfly style, it has become incredibly difficult for forwards to score. We also see that powerplays in general have been down and are around 30 years lows at the moment. Teams are converting at a worse percentage as well due to the increase in player size, the better padding and equipment provided, and the increase in the willingness to block shots. Finally, the invention of defensive systems to make up for being less talented offensively really slowed down the NHL in the mid-90's and through the early 2000's. The lockout in 2004-2005 was meant to improve the game of hockey as all of the obstruction through the neutral zone had made the game unappealing. However, after a strong first two years, the league is back to being lower scoring, but at least there is not as much obstruction in the neutral zone. For the league to really become more high scoring, it will have to consider increasing the size of the nets, increasing the space behind the net, or perhaps come up with a solution to improve powerplay percentage such as forcing teams to kill the entire 2 minutes, or calling icing on the shorthanded team. We'll see what the NHL chooses to do, but the fact of the matter is that scoring is down in a big way and if the NHL wants to continue to compete with the NBA, it will have to introduce a little more scoring into the game without altering the game in a big way.

Sunday, December 25, 2011

Studs and Duds From the 1st Half of the NHL Season

Well we are almost at the halfway point of the NHL season and I thought it would be an appropriate time to run through each NHL team and look at the one Stud and the one Dud from that team.

Anaheim Ducks
- Stud - Teemu Selanne - The Finnish Flash is still at it at the ripe age of 41. He leads this Ducks team with 35 points and is on a point per game pace. Age is just a number to this man and it seems like he could play forever. Another positive note is that on this Anaheim team that ranks 26th in the NHL in goals against, Selanne is a plus player (+1).
- Dud - Take your pick. The "vaunted" line of Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Bobby Ryan has fallen flat on their face. After finishing 4th in the West last year, and having Corey Perry win the MVP, you would have expected big things from these 3. Instead, all three are at less than a point per game pace, with Bobby Ryan on pace to finish with just 24 goals and 41 points. Corey Perry, 50 goal scorer from last year, is on pace to finish with just 34 goals and 70 points after his 50 goal, 98 point performance last year. Finally, Ryan Getzlaf has not had fewer than 50 assists or 19 goals in a single season since his sophomore year. This year, he is on pace for just 14 goals and 46 assists, giving him 60 points. That would be his lowest total since his sophomore campaign. Either way, if the Ducks want to get back in this to finish with a respectable record, these 3 are going to have to step up their play

Boston Bruins
- Stud - Tyler Seguin - After having an up and down rookie year that involved him getting benched on a few different occasions. In his 2nd year, Seguin has been the sniper that the Bruins were looking for, as he is 2nd on the team with his 14 goals and he leads the team with 31 points. He is a ridiculous +26, indicating that he's playing excellent two way hockey. This kid is only going to get better, but he has definitely been a serious stud for the Bruins. (Tim Thomas is a flat out stud - I don't have to say that here for people to know that).
- Dud - It's really hard to pick out a dud for the Bruins with the way they've been playing, but one player that I think people can point a finger at is Nathan Horton. Horton was brought in to be a goal scorer and last year he did that, notching 26 goals for the Bruins. In his career, he has only scored less than 20 goals once (his rookie campaign) and that includes his 6 seasons with the goal-deprived Panthers. However, this year he is on pace for just 22 goals and 52 points, making this his worst goal season since 09-10 and his worst point season since 08-09. More was expected of Horton when he arrived in Boston, especially in the goal-scoring department. He has the linemates, he just needs to start finishing.

Buffalo Sabres
- Stud - Boy has Jason Pominville responded to being named Captain. After hitting a high of 80 points in the 07-08 campaign, Pominville's numbers had been slowly declining, falling from 80 to 66 to 62 to a low of 52 in the 2010-2011 season. However, Pominville has responded this year, posting 37 points in 34 games so far, putting him on pace for 89, which would be a career high. He's also on pace for a career high in assists with 63. If only he could get the rest of his teammates to follow...
- Dud -This one is fairly easy. Ville Leino. After signing a 6 year $27 million contract, big things were expected of Leino, namely in the goal scoring department. After posting his high of 19 goals with the Flyers last year, people felt that the was on the rise. Definitely not the case for Buffalo so far. Leino has just 3 goals and 10 points in 29 games. He has only managed to get 28 shots on goal. That's good for 11th amongst forwards on his team. Tyler Ennis who has only played in 15 games has 30 shots on goal. Leino has just flat out not lived up to his contract and it seems as if he's trying too hard. He just needs to get pucks to the net and simplify his game.

Calgary Flames
- Stud - I am shocked to say this, but Olli Jokinen is having a pretty good year. Since 2007-2008 Jokinen has not posted an NHL season with more than 57 points. This year, he is on pace to shatter that with 27 goals and 68 points. Both would be his highest totals since the 2007-2008 season. For years, he has been considered an underachiever, but right now his offense has helped the Flames remain in playoff position, just 2 points out of the 8 seed.
- Dud -  There are a couple of options here. On one hand, Matt Stajan is the last remaining piece received from the Maple Leafs in the Dion Phaneuf deal and he has done nothing yet. However, my pick for this dud goes to Rene Bourque. After posting back to back 27 goal seasons and back to back seasons of more than 50 points, a lot was expected of Bourque heading into this season. Through 36 games, Bourque has just 11 goals and 14 points, putting him on pace for 25 goals, but just 32 points. He has also been extremely inconsistent in his goal scoring, scoring those 11 goals in random spurts. Bourque also has registered just 76 shots, putting him on pace for 173 shots, which would be his lowest shot total since 08-09 when he only played 58 games. The Flames will need Bourque to step it up if they plan on making a push to the playoffs in the 2nd half of the season.

Carolina Hurricanes
- Stud - It's hard to find one on this Hurricanes team, but if I have to select one, it has to be Jeff Skinner. Even though he's currently out with a concussion and has missed 6 games on the year, he stil leads the team in goals and points. He was continuing the pace he set from last year as he was again on pace for 33 goals and 66 points. He was the only legitimate scoring threat for the Hurricanes and has been their lone bright spot this year. He was also coming into his own offensively as he was on pace for just shy of 300 shots on goal, which would be a significant improvement on the 215 he put up his rookie campaign. We hope to see him back soon because he was the ONLY stud for the Hurricanes.
- Dud - Where to begin? Cam Ward? He's got a horrific 3.23 GAA and an .898 SV%. Jussi Jokinen? Just 4 goals (on pace for 9) through 36 games after scoring a combined 49 the past two years? No, the distinction of DUD has to fall on Eric Staal, the team's captain. He has been the face of the franchise the past few years and has always shouldered the scoring low, never failing to score less than 70 points since his rookie season. Staal has failed to score less than 30 goals just once since the lockout and has never recorded less than 70 points since the lockout. This year? He is on pace for a meager 16 goals and 46 points, far cries from where he usually is. Even worse, Staal is a horrific -21, which is worst in the NHL. Something has to give for the Carolina captain. He is just 27 years of age and should be hitting his stride. Instead he looks disinterested and is flat out struggling.

Chicago Blackhawks
-Stud - If you look up stud in the dictionary, chances are you will see a picture of Jonathan Toews. The man does it all. He is a bonafide MVP candidate (my 1st half MVP choice) as he is 8th in the NHL in scoring, 2nd in goals, a +13, wins a ridiculous 60.5% of his faceoffs, and has just 12 PIM. This man might has a shot at winning the Rocket Richard, the Art Ross Trophy, the Hart Trophy, the Selke Trophy, the Ted Lindsay Trophy, and the Lady Byng. That's the definition of STUD. Oh and his team is also 1st overall in the NHL.
- Dud - If i have to pick a dud from the Blackhawks, it has to be their goaltending. The only thing stopping this team from being the dead-on favorite in the West is their shoddy goaltending. Corey Crawford, you are my Blackhawks goat. Crawford and Emery will determine just how far this team goes. If Crawford keeps up his 2.94 GAA and his .898 SV%, then Chicago will go nowhere. This Blackhawks team reminds me of the old Red Wings teams in the sense that they don't need their goaltender to be spectacular, but just good enough. If either Crawford or Emery can find that "good enough" level, watch out. Until then, they are what's holding this team back.

Colorado Avalanche
- Stud - This might seem a little odd, but I'm going with the rookie here. Gabriel Landeskog is the real deal and he's shown that so far. He may not be lighting up the score sheet, but he is 6th on his team in scoring, one of 2 plus players on his team that has played more than half the games, and leads the team in shots on goal with 109. He also leads his team in hits, is second on his team in takeaways, and is second on his team in blocked shots by forwards. He is a complete player and the scoring will come for him.
- Dud - Semyon Varlamov. After starting the season so strong, he has faded and the team has turned to the veteran J.S. Giguere. Varlamov cost the Avs a pretty penny and his stats leave a lot to be desired (3.14 GAA, .896 SV%). Years from now, this may be considered one of the most lopsided deals from this decade and it may be considered the deal that prevented the Avalanche from getting better. If the Avs hang on to Brian Elliott and hang on to those draft picks they sent....who knows? However, that's all speculation. In reality, Varlamov needed to establish himself as a top 10 goaltender for this deal to be considered a win, and instead he's been a major dud.

Columbus Blue Jackets
- Stud - Do I really have to pick one? Really? Fine, I'll go with Vinny Prospal. Prospal is leading the Jackets in points with 27, and is on pace to top the 60 point mark for the first time since 2005-2006 back when he was with the Lightning. I really can't say much more than that about the Blue Jackets because they have been so bad this season. However, congratulations to Prospal for righting the ship in his career, and hopefully he can parlay that into future success with the Blue Jackets
- Dud - Don't even know where to begin here. I want to say Steve Mason, but I think he just was a flash in the pan his rookie year and will never get back to those numbers. I want to say Derick Brassard as so much was expected of the kid, but he has just 9 points in 26 games and is a terrible -13. No, I think I'll go with Jeff Carter. Hat trick against Nashville aside, Carter has been terrible. Even after the hat trick, Carter has just 10 goals and 16 points in his 23 games played. He's currently on pace to finish the season with 24 goals and 39 points, which is nowhere near what was expected of him. Carter was expected to arrive in Columbus and be the center that Rick Nash never had. Instead, the two failed to gel, Carter broke his foot, and now is on pace for his lowest point total since 06-07 when he only played 62 games.

Dallas Stars
- Stud - Jamie Benn. Boy this guy is on pace to shatter his previous career high of 56 points. Benn is leading the Stars in scoring and is on pace for 22 goals (that would be the 3rd consecutive year Benn has scored 22 goals. He has never scored anything but 22 goals in his career - interesting stat), and 75 points. Benn has led the offensive attack that was expected to disappear after Brad Richards left and it has kept the Stars in the playoff race. But Benn has done more than score for this team. He is 4th amongst forwards on his team in hits and he leads his team in takeaways. He is playing in both zones and is playing effectively
- Dud - It's hard to pick on this guy, but I'm looking at Brendan Morrow. This guy is the captain of the Stars and is one of the few guys who I feel really brings 100% night in and night out. However, his numbers are suffering this year and in a year when the Stars need scoring more than ever, Morrow has to be accountable. After netting 33 goals last year, Morrow is on pace for just 17 goals this year and just 41 points, down from the 33 goals and 56 points he had last year. He has also mustered just 44 shots on goal this season, which would barely give him 100 shots for the year (106), which is almost half of the number of shots he put on goal last year (209). When healthy, Morrow has the capabilities of being a 70+ point player, and he needs to play like that for the Stars to get themselves through the second half of the season and into the playoffs.

Detroit Red Wings
- Stud - This one is fairly easy in my book. Jimmy Howard has firmly ensconced himself in any discussion of best goaltender in the NHL and is my Vezina front-runner at the moment. Howard leads the NHL in wins with 20, is 4th in the NHL in GAA (1.99) for starting goaltenders (I'm counting Elliott, Giguere, and Thomas ahead of him), and is 9th in the NHL amongst starting goaltenders in SV% (.925%). Essentially, he's been flat out phenomenal. If he can keep up his current pace, he will pass Martin Brodeur's record of 48 wins in a season, and he will do it in fewer games than Marty. Keep your eyes on him, because he could take the Wings to the promised land.
- Dud - I hate to pick on this guy because he's another one of the guys that always seems to bring his all, but Henrik Zetterberg has got to start filling up the stat sheet. I understand that he does so much more than offense, but he is relied upon by the Red Wings to score and he has not done that this year. Zetterberg has just 8 goals and 23 points in 34 games thus far, putting him on pace for just 19 goals and 55 points. Those would be the 2nd fewest goals he's scored in his career and the 3rd fewest points. Put it simply, Zetterberg has the potential to be an 80-90 point player and its inexcusable for a man of his talent to be struggling this much. It seems as if he's trying to do too much as he has just 109 shots on goals, putting him on pace for 263 shots on goal, which would be the fewest he's had since 2006-2007 when he missed 19 games. Plain and simple, he needs to put the puck to the net and look for his shot, otherwise the Red Wings are in trouble.

Edmonton Oilers
- Stud - Gotta go with the kid. Have to go with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Remember back at 9 games when people were debating about whether or not the Oilers should return him to juniors? After 34 games, RNH has 13 goals, 34 points, is 3rd amongst Forwards on his team in terms of ice time, and he's only going to get better. This youth-led attack will be led by RNH and he's showing his capabilities this season. Enjoy the ride Oiler fans. For those that are curious, Eberle and Khabibulin were very close seconds to RNH.
- Dud - Ales Hemsky. For years, Hemsky has carried this Oilers team, sometimes taking them much further than they should have gone and sometimes underachieving. However, it finally looks like Hemsky has run out of magic. He has just 3 goals and 11 points in the 22 games that he has played, putting him on pace for just 7 goals and 27 points which would be career lows for him. He no longer has to be the focal point of the offense with Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and RNH, but production from him is still a necessity if Edmonton expects to compete.

Florida Panthers
- Stud - Without a doubt, Kris Versteeg has taken off on this Panthers team. A lot was expected of him when he posted a strong 22 goals and 53 points in his first full season with the Blackhawks. However, his point totals dipped from there and he found his way to the Panthers. Now? Versteeg has 16 goals and 37 points through the first 35 games and is on pace for 37 goals and 87 points, which would be career highs and would put him near the top of the NHL in scoring. This is the kind of scoring that Florida has missed since Olli Jokinen left. Versteeg and his linemates are a major reason why the Panthers are leading their division (not a misprint) and are in position to make the playoffs (also not a misprint). Apologies to Jason Garrison, Brian Campbell, Stephen Weiss, Tomas Fleischmann, and Jose Theodore (not a misprint).
- Dud - I have to go with Sean Bergenheim because of the contract he signed. Sure his career best numbers are 15 goals and 29 points, but after his 9 goal playoff performance and his 4 year $11 million contract, expectations were raised. So far, Bergenheim has only managed to contribute 7 goals and 0 assists. That's putting him on pace for 16 goals, which will be a career high for him, but not the numbers that were expected of him by the Panthers. Bergenheim needs to get going for this Panthers team to be really dangerous.

Los Angeles Kings
- Stud - Hard to find one on the goal-deprived Kings, but I will go with Anze Kopitar (really reaching here, I know). He's a bit off his pace from last year, but he is still around a point per game pace while leading his team in takeaways by a wide margin (39-17), winning 52.8% of his faceoffs, and leading his team in shots. He has literally had to carry the Kings offense thus far, and he needs a lot of help moving forwards. When Mike Richards gets healthy this team has the potential to be an upset special come playoff time
- Dud - I could go the really easy route and pick Dustin Penner. But I'm not. I'm pointing my finger at the Captain, Dustin Brown. The Los Angeles Kings were a sexy pick of many to go deep into the playoffs and even hoist the Stanley Cup. Instead, the Kings are sitting at 11th in the West and 4th in their own division. I have no issues with Brown's statistical production, but I'm pointing my finger at him from a leadership standpoint. The Kings tuned out Terry Murray awfully early and we'll see what happens under new coach Darryl Sutter. Brown has to be responsible to a certain degree for the players just tuning out Terry Murray and for not being able to get his guys to dig deep and play hard.

Minnesota Wild
- Stud - Kyle Brodziak. For a player that has never scored more than 16 goals or 37 points, he's doing pretty well this year. Brodziak is leading the Wild team in goals with 11, putting him on pace for 25 goals which would almost double his career high. The Wild have long been a team that has struggled to score, but Brodziak has been a pleasant surprise along with Dany Heatley. If he continues to score, the Wild will be a dangerous team come playoff time.
- Dud - Devon Setoguchi. After coming over in the Brent Burns deal, Setoguchi was expected to be an offensive threat for the Wild. This is a man that had scored 73 goals the past 3 seasons and had a high of 31 just 3 years ago. So far, Setoguchi has only managed 8 goals and 13 points, putting him on pace for 18 goals and 30 points which would be his lowest totals since his rookie season. Yes the Wild system isn't as open as the Sharks system, but its far more open than the Jacques Lemaire days and Setoguchi should be much better. Also, he is a team worst -7. Even allergic-to-defense Dany Heatley is a +6. Setoguchi must step up as a viable scoring threat for the Wild to be a serious Cup contender.

Montreal Canadiens
- Stud - Erik Cole. This may seem a little out there and pardon me as I have not seen many Canadiens games this year, but from what I've seen, Erik Cole has done exactly what the Canadiens needed him to do. When the Canadiens signed him, they were hoping that he net them 30 goals as he has done in the past, and he is on pace to do just that. Cole is on pace for 30 goals and 52 points which is music to Canadiens fans' ears . They needed a viable threat besides Cammaleri and Cole has done just that. Cole has also managed to be a plus player for the Canadiens which is fairly impressive.
- Dud - As Erik Cole was brought in to complement Cammaleri, Mike Cammaleri has sufficiently disappeared. I could easily point my finger at Scott Gomez simply because of the contract he has, but let's get real - after disappointing us the past few years, did anyone really expect him to be any good this year? Cammaleri on the other hand has been the lone goal scoring threat for the Canadiens the past couple of years and finally got some help with Erik Cole. However, Cammaleri has just 6 goals and 18 points, putting him on pace for 14 goals, which would be his lowest goal total since the lockout. Cammaleri has to find his way for the Canadiens to get back into the playoff race.

Nashville Predators
- Stud - Without a doubt it has to be Shea Weber. He has to be the frontrunner for the Norris Trophy and he's easily my midseason Norris pick. Weber has 29 points thus far, putting him on pace for 19 goals and 68 points, which are phenomenal numbers for a defensemen (Nick Lidstrom-esque if I dare say). To boot, he's the only player on his team that is a double digit plus player (+14), he has 5 powerplay goals, and he leads his team in shots. In addition, he is 3rd on his team in hits, third in blocked shots, and makes the best cup of coffee. Plain and simple, if you take him off Nashville, they are fighting with Columbus for last place.
- Dud - Nashville has a knack for the playoffs that makes me wonder if Barry Trotz made a deal with the devil. They rely on timely scoring and lesser known players stepping up and scoring big goals. This happened last year with Sergei Kostitsyn, as he netted 23 goals and 50 points last year, shattering his previous career highs of 9 goals and 27 points. So naturally, Nashville has to rely on him as a goal scorer, but instead he has lit the lamp just 5 times this year and has a measly 15 points thus far, putting him on pace for only 12 goals and 35 points. While those would be the 2nd best numbers of his career, those are a steep drop off from the numbers he achieved last year and Nashville needs him to start lighting the lamp.

New Jersey Devils
- Stud - The Stud is a tough one to choose here. I can look to Adam Henrique who has been a pleasant surprise, netting 9 goals and 26 points thus far. Or I can point to the old guard and look at Patrik Elias who leads this team in scoring. I'm going to go with the old guard. Patrik Elias has had a renaissance of sorts, as he leads the team in goals and points. He has also taken over the franchise goals scored record, passing John MacLean. He has meant everything to the Devils as he is their career leader in regular season goals and points, and playoff goals, assists, and points. He has the most points in a single regular season by a Devils player and the most points in a single playoff campaign by a Devils player. Elias owns just about every Devils offensive record and at the ripe age of 35, he continues to play at a high level. He is on pace for another 30 goal season and another 70 point season. He continues to amaze.
- Dud -  Again, a couple of different people I can look at here. I can look at money man Ilya Kovalchuk, whose numbers haven't been horrible but they are horrible for a $100 million man (11 goals, 27 points, -11). I could look at Martin Brodeur who looks like he's on his last legs (3.06 GAA, 9 wins in 20 games, and .884 SV%). Instead I'll look at Anton Volchenkov. In Ottawa, he played against the other teams top players and was considered one of the few players that could get to the star players. Ovechkin never enjoyed playing against him and he said as much. Now? Volchenkov has lost the trust of the coaches here in New Jersey and the biggest indicator of that is his ice time. He's 6th amongst defenseman on his own team in ice time, and the only serious playing time he gets is on the penalty kill because of his shot blocking ability. It's even worse when you look at the number of shifts Volchenkov gets, as he gets just 22 shifts per game, good for 14th on his team. This is not what Volchenkov was brought here to do and at $25.5 million over 6 years? Simply not good enough. (In reality, I just hate picking on Brodeur)

New York Islanders
- Stud - Matt Moulson. Is he the most underrated goal scorer in the NHL? I think so. After back to back 30 goal seasons, nobody has paid attention to him. So he decided to put himself on pace to score 40 this year, put up 70 points, and be a plus player for the first time in his career. He's averaging about a takeaway a game which puts him in the top 20 in the NHL so maybe now, somebody will notice what Moulson is doing. Yes he's stuck on a bad team, but 40 goals is nothing to turn your nose up at.
- Dud - Kyle Okposo. After solid 08-09 and 09-10 campaigns that saw him rack up a combined 37 goals and 91 points, he had an injury shortened campaign that saw him net 20 points in 38 games. He was on his way to another solid year which prompted everybody to keep their expectations high on Okposo. Instead, he has floundered this year, posting just 6 goals and 13 points in the 30 games he's played. He's on pace for just 15 goals and 32 points which is a very much off from what was expected of him. To boot, he's a -12 so far which is 4th worst on his team. Also, in Okposo's 08-09 and 09-10 campaigns, he lead the team in takeaways and was often in the top 10 in the NHL in that stat. This year, he's just 5th on his team. I don't know if the compete level isn't there or if he just needs a change of scenery, but the Isles need Okposo to return to his 09-10 levels for them to continue to grow as a team.

New York Rangers
- Stud - Dan Giradi. With Marc Staal missing the entire regular season thus far, somebody on the New York blue line had to step up. Giradi was that man, turning in a Norris-worthy campaign thus far. He's done it all for the team, leading the team in blocked shots (91), ice time (27:35), and is 2nd in takeaways and hits. His point numbers aren't the greatest (3-10-13), but he's been an absolute rock on the Ranger blue line. (For those that wanted Lundqvist, his performance night in and night out is pretty much the usual. His brilliance no longer fazes me.)
- Dud - Brian Boyle. Some of you probably did not expect him to repeat his 21 goal performance from last year, but I didn't expect him to fall this far. Just 2 goals through the first 33 games this year, putting him on pace for just 5 goals. Now the Rangers don't necessarily need him to be a 20 goal scorer with the addition of Brad Richards, but dropping from 21 to 5 will definitely earn you a spot on my Duds List.

Ottawa Senators
- Stud - This was a toss up for me between Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson, and Milan Michalek. Michalek, at the time of his injury, was leading the NHL in goals with 19. Spezza has had a mini renaissance and is tied for 8th in the NHL in scoring. But I think the real story is Erik Karlsson. In a story I wrote before the season I said that the key player for the Senators this year was Karlsson and that he needed to enter himself into the upper echelon of defense scoring. Well, he leads all defensemen in points with 33 and is on pace to threaten the 80 point mark (would be the first defenseman to hit the 80 point mark since Nick Lidstrom in 05-06). He's been a workhorse for them, averaging over 25 minutes a night. The next step he needs to take is to become a more well rounded defenseman. He is showing some skill with his stick in his defensive zone as evidenced by his team-leading 30 takeaways, but becoming a little more solid in his own zone will go a long way to being a viable Norris candidate for years to come.
- Dud - Craig Anderson. Boy do the Senators wish that they could have Brian Elliott back. Anderson has been mediocre this year, posting a 3.27 GAA and a .899 SV%. The sad part is that he's been their best goaltender and he has been their go-to guy this year. The Senators are another team that is sitting on the outside of the playoff picture but very much in striking distance. However, they will never strike if their goaltending does not improve and Craig Anderson needs to recapture his 2009-2010 Vezina Candidate form. We know he has it in him, it's just a matter of finding his game.

Philadelphia Flyers
- Stud - Has to be their MVP Claude Giroux. Giroux leads the NHL in points and has been unbelievable thus far. He's on pace for a 100 point season and is a definite MVP candidate. He and Jagr have formed a fearsome twosome and the Flyers are definitely a team to be reckoned with. I really can't say a whole lot more about Giroux. He's just been phenomenal thus far.
- Dud - Ilya Bryzgalov. The man that was brought in to be the final piece for the Flyers, the man that cost them Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, has been not so good thus far. A 2.92 GAA and a .895 SV% simply will not cut it. He's been lucky so far to have such a high scoring team in front of him that his win-loss numbers have not been affected that much. However, we are starting to realize that maybe Bryzgalov was a product of the Dave Tippett system as Mike Smith has been able to step in and perform at Bryz's level. The old adage is that goaltending wins championships come playoff time and if Bryz doesn't get better, the Flyers will NOT hoist the Stanley Cup.

Phoenix Coyotes
- Stud - As much as I want to say Mike Smith, I feel that he is a product of the system, so I am going to go with Radim Vrbata. Vrbata is a guy that has never scored more than 27 goals in his career, but he's on pace for a 37 goal, 68 point campaign which would be phenomenal for the Coyotes. The Coyotes have not had a guy score more than 35 goals since Keith Tkachuk did it in 1998-1999. If Vrbata can continue to stay in the top 10 in the  NHL in goals and continue to score the timely goals (4th in the NHL in GWG), the Coyotes might sneak into the playoffs for another year.
- Dud - This is a case of where the stats don't tell the whole story. Keith Yandle has 5 goals and 22 points thus far, putting him on pace for 12 goals and 52 points, which would be another solid season for Yandle. However, I'm picking on him because his overall play just hasn't been that of a #1 defenseman and a defenseman that has a 5 year $26 million contract. First, Yandle is 4th in the NHL among blueliners in terms of giveaways, but he's outside of the top 60 in terms of takeaways. Yandle has just 11 hits on the year and 38 blocked shots, both stats that are pretty paltry for a guy like Yandle. I can let those numbers slide when it comes to a guy like Lidstrom who is much more apt with his stick in his own zone and gets his defense done by positioning. Yandle has been caught out of position much more, and for him being the power play QB that he is, he's missed the net almost as many times as he's hit it (52 missed shots, 88 shots on goal). Yandle has to be better than this for the Coyotes.

Pittsburgh Penguins
- Stud - Evgeni Malkin - With Sidney Crosby's situation not looking good, Malkin has stepped up and is turning in another stellar campaign. Malkin leads the team with 40 points in just 28 games played and for some reason, he seems to have this extra gear that he shifts into when Crosby is out. He is a serious threat to win the scoring race. Put stats aside and just watch the guy play. Every time he is on the ice, he is doing something positive for his team and that's all you can really ask of a guy.
- Dud - It's hard to pick a dud on this team because what's stopping this team is injuries. But I'm going to pick on backup Brent Johnson. Johnson has started 39 games combined the past two years for the Penguins and he has been a very serviceable backup, providing 23 wins in those games. This year, Johnson has been subpar at best. Johnson is 2-4-2 in his 8 starts, and has a 3.23 GAA and a .885 SV%. Fleury will need breathers throughout the season and Johnson will be needed to provide timely starts, especially if the Penguins end up not having Letang or Crosby for a long time. Their goaltending will need to be sharp and Johnson will be counted on to win some big games.

St. Louis Blues
- Stud - Brian Elliott. Elliott has taken the NHL by storm, posting an absurd 1.55 GAA and a .943 SV%. The Blues don't exactly have an explosive offense, with only 3 players projected to score more than 20 goals and none on pace to score more than 30. They need Elliott to be this good and he has been. He was totally disregarded after his stint with the Avs last year and signed a one year contract at $600,000. As long as he continues to play this well and he takes over the lion's share of the workload, he will be a bonafide Vezina contender.
- Dud - Chris Stewart - To put it simply, Chris Stewart is a goal scorer and he has not done that for the Blues this year. After scoring 15 goals for the Blues last year in just 26 games (a 47 goals/82 games pace), Stewart has just 5 goals thus far, putting him on pace for 12 goals. Coming into this season, he was expected to be the top goal scorer for the Blues and he just has not gotten there. For the Blues to win in the postseason, Stewart will have to step up in a big way.

San Jose Sharks
- Stud - Lost in all the NHL hoopla has been the San Jose Sharks this year. Very little has been said about the Sharks as they continue on their path to an 8th consecutive playoff berth. Logan Couture has quietly picked up right where he left off last year after his stellar rookie campaign. Couture is leading the Sharks in goals (on pace for 38), is 4th amongst forwards on his team in terms of ice time, 2nd on his team in takeaways, and is winning 52.3% of his draws. This sophomore clearly is not suffering from the sophomore slump.
- Dud - Dan Boyle. This is a case where on the outside, Boyle looks ok statistically. However, via the eye test, Boyle has looked a step slow all year, has taken an inordinate amount of penalties (on pace for almost 100 PIM's this year), and he has just 1 powerplay goal this year. Statistically, Boyle is still projected to end up with 5 goals and 41 points which are decent numbers for a defenseman, but the Sharks need Boyle to be better than that. The Sharks need Boyle to score around 10 goals a season, between 50-60 points, and they need him out of the box. Boyle must deliver for this Sharks team as their PK has been particularly atrocious this year so it is imperative that he stays out of the box.

Tampa Bay Lightning
- Stud - Steven Stamkos. Another old adage: Your best players need to be your best players. Steven Stamkos has done just that. He's on pace to push 50 goals and 90 points again and with the disappearance of Alex Ovechkin, he's firmly establishing himself as the best goal scorer in the NHL. Right now, he's doing all that he can do to keep the Lightning within range of the playoffs (currently 8 back of a spot with 2 games in hand). The art of the 50 goal scorer is slowly fading away, but Stamkos refuses to let that happen.
- Dud - I think he is one of my top 5 duds of the NHL season thus far. Dwyane Roloson, after putting the Lightning on his back last year, is dragging this team further and further away from the playoffs. He has been so bad that the Lightning have turned to Mathieu Garon, who has a 2.84 GAA and a .902 SV%, and he's been better than Roloson. Roloson has just 6 wins, a 3.72 GAA and a .883 SV%, and is causing GM Steve Yzerman many sleepless nights as he tries to find a replacement.

Toronto Maple Leafs
- Stud - I've got to go with a tie here between Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul. Kessel for being a flat out machine so far, and Lupul, for sheer "where-the-hell-did-that-come-from"? Lupul and Kessel are both in the top 6 in the NHL in scoring, both are in the top 10 in goals, and both are reasons why Toronto fans have hope. A change is coming in Toronto and these two are leading the way.
- Dud - Tim Connolly. I hate to pick on somebody for injuries, but the mantra with Connolly has always been that "when healthy, he can be a #1 center". Well the Maple Leafs gambled on him this offseason, offering him a 2 year $9.5 million deal after he managed to play 141 of the previous 164 games. This year alone, Connolly has missed 12 games and has been inconsistent when he has played. Connolly has 17 points this year and they have come in 10 games this year. He's been scoreless in the other 13 games. If Connolly can be more consistent down the stretch for the Maple Leafs, their offense can really pose a serious threat come playoff time.

Vancouver Canucks
- Stud - Pick one of the Sedin twins. Both are having great years again, both are on pace for 90+ point seasons, and both are pretty much indistinguishable. They continue to lead Vancouver's vaunted offensive attack and seem to have an innate communication built in to their blood. Not much more to say here as this was pretty much expected of both
- Dud - Roberto Luongo. It's hard to pick on him now as he's finally turning around his game, but his horrendous start to the season allowed Minnesota to take a brief lead in the Northwest division. His numbers at the midway point aren't too bad at 2.44 GAA and a .914 SV%, but they are a far cry from the league leaders and far off from what Vancouver needs from him come playoff time. Cory Schneider has been far better this year with a 2.17 GAA and a .931 SV%, but because of Luongo's contract, he will continue to the be the starter for the Canucks and the Canucks need him to be better if they want to win the Stanley Cup this year.

Washington Capitals
- Stud - Mike Green. The Caps have yet to lose a game he played in... nah I'm just kidding. On a team that has underachieved so badly this year, it was hard to pick a stud. I decided to go with Jason Chimera. I'll give a $1000 to the person that at the beginning of the year said that through 33 games, Jason Chimera would lead the team in goals. Anybody? Didn't think so. Chimera, a man with only 98 career goals in his 10 previous NHL seasons, and a career high of 17 goals, has 13 goals through the first 33 games and is on pace for a 32 goal season, which would just about double his previous career high. With Ovechkin and Semin being nonexistent, Chimera has provided the goal scoring punch for this quickly burning out Capitals squad.
- Dud - Pick between the two Alex's. I'm going with Ovechkin. Really Ovie? Really? After busting into the NHL with a 52 goal season as a rookie, then following it up with seasons of 46, 65, 56, and 50, you had us talking about having potentially one of the greatest goal scorers of all time. He may not play a lot of defense, or do much else, but man can he score goals. WHAT HAPPENED? After his dismal campaign of 32 last year and his failure to break the 90 point mark for the first time in his career, Ovechkin is on pace for just 27 goals and 60 points. Once one of the most electrifying players in the NHL, we are now talking about a guy who still doesn't play defense, but now doesn't score! We are talking about a guy that has the talent to score 50 goals no problem, and now he's just barely mustering 50 points? WAKE UP ALEXANDER "THE GREAT"!

Winnipeg Jets
- Stud - Evander Kane. Kane has been a player that has shown flashes of brilliance his first two seasons, and now he seems to be putting it together. After netting 19 goals last year, Kane is on pace for 35 goals and 61 points - both would be career highs. The 35 goals would put him among the league leaders and he is the scoring punch that this Jets franchise desperately needs. He also has been good defensively as he leads all forwards on his team in takeaways and is second among forwards on his team in hits with 80. Kane will continue to grow in his 3rd season and he has been an offensive stud for the Jets.
- Dud - Ondrej Pavelec - For the Jets to be a playoff team this year, they needed Pavelec to take his game to the next level. Last year, Pavelec showed flashes of brilliance and posted a 2.73 GAA and a .914 SV%, playing behind the 2nd worst defense. This year, the defense has improved (albeit from 29th to 20th), but Pavelec's numbers have actually gotten worse (2.91 GAA, .909 SV%). The Jets are on the cusp of a playoff spot this year and he needs to be better for them down the stretch in order for the Jets to secure a playoff berth that would drive their fans wild.

Saturday, December 24, 2011

NHL Realignment -- How does it affect your team?

The NHL has finally adopted a new realignment plan, scrapping the current 6 division, 2 conference format and instead adopting a 4 conference format. Two of the four conferences will contain 8 teams and the other two conferences will contain 7 teams.

Conference A:
Anaheim Ducks
Calgary Flames
Colorado Avalanche
Edmonton Oilers
Los Angeles Kings
Phoenix Coyotes
San Jose Sharks
Vancouver Canucks

Conference B:
Chicago Blackhawks
Columbus Blue Jackets
Dallas Stars
Detroit Red Wings
Minnesota Wild
Nashville Predators
St. Louis Blues
Winnipeg Jets

Conference C:
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Florida Panthers
Montreal Canadiens
Ottawa Senators
Tampa Bay Lightning
Toronto Maple Leafs

Conference D:
Carolina Hurricanes
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Washington Capitals

Regular Season Quick Hits
- Each team will play a home and home with every team outside of its conference
- In the 7 team conferences, each team will 3 home games and 3 road games with every team in the conference. (36 divisional games)
- In the 8 team conferences, each team will either play each other 5 or 6 times and it will rotate, allowing for a total of 38 divisional games

Playoffs
- The top 4 teams in each conference will qualify for the playoffs. The first round will be a "divisional" matchup as the top seed from each conference will play the 4th seed from that same conference and the 2nd seed from that conference will play the 3rd seed of that conference.
- The 2nd round will pit the winners of the 1v4  and 2v3 matchups within the conference. This will allow the NHL to establish a "conference winner".
- The 3rd round will consist of the 4 conference winners and they will compete for the Stanley Cup. There is a potential that the NHL may reseed the teams at this stage in order to have the highest seed play the lowest seed.

What is still left to be determined
- Will the NHL reseed in the Semifinals?
- What will the conference names be?

Pros
- Reduction of Travel for some teams
- Every Team gets a home and away with every team
- The institution of a divisional round in the playoffs can build fierce rivalries
- Many current NHL rivalries were preserved (Chicago-Detroit, Philadelphia-Pittsburgh, Washington-Pittsburgh, Boston-Montreal)

Cons
- The divisions that have 8 teams will make it more difficult for each team to get to the playoffs. The historical evidence of this goes back to the old 4 conference format the NHL used to have. There were 3 divisions that had 5 teams and one division that had 6. The division that had 6 used to require more points just to be able to get into the playoffs. There is the potential that it may take 100 points to get into the playoffs in the 8 team conferences.
- Some teams now must travel a lot more. Teams like Ottawa and Montreal now must travel to Florida and Tampa Bay 3 times during the year. However, there is no one system that could appease everybody

So after that general breakdown, how does realignment specifically affect your team?

Anaheim Ducks
- Pros
       - Anaheim keeps a lot of its divisional rivalries from the Pacific Division as San Jose, Phoenix, and    Los Angeles all came over with them.
      - Anaheim now gets to have a home and away series with every team, meaning that they get to bring the likes of Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, and Steven Stamkos to their building every year which should hopefully help with ticket sales.
- Cons
      - With only 4 teams making the playoffs from this conference, Anaheim will have to contend with the likes of perennial powers in San  Jose and Vancouver as well as strong up and comers in Los Angeles, Colorado, and Edmonton. Phoenix is always a wild-card for the playoffs so this could potentially be a division where it takes 100 points to get into the playoffs. This will make it very difficult for Anaheim to compete on a yearly basis and will put the onus on their ownership to make this team much better

Boston Bruins
- Pros
       - Boston gets to preserve its rivalry with Montreal which has been very heated of late.
       - Boston can look to develop a rivalry with Tampa Bay after that awesome playoff series last year and with both teams loaded for the long haul, this could be an electric rivalry
       - This conference contains a lot of up-and-comers but no real perennial challengers, so for the next couple of years, the Bruins have the potential to pencil a playoff spot as Toronto, Buffalo, and Florida continue to develop
       - After the heated games between Boston and Buffalo this year, this new format has allowed those two teams to potentially develop a very strong rivalry
- Cons
      - Travel will definitely be up for the Bruins as they have to make 3 trips to Florida and 3 trips to Tampa Bay. Hopefully, scheduling will allow them to make Florida road trips so they don't have to make too many separate trips to Florida.

Buffalo Sabres
- Pros
      - As mentioned above, the chance to grow their rivalry with the Bruins remains
      - Buffalo gets to bring in several high profile teams from their conference 3 times a year, which should help their ticket sales. With Boston, Toronto, and Ottawa visiting 3 times a year as well as home and away with every team in the NHL, attendance should not be an issue for Buffalo (currently middle of the pack at 13th)
- Cons
      - Travel again will be an issue as Buffalo has to make trips to Florida for games against the Panthers and the Lightning. That will be the prevailing issue for this Conference as almost every conference is organized geographically, but this conference was not.
      - In a division with several up and comers, it will be difficult to make the playoffs in the near future as Toronto and Florida continue to develop. Buffalo will have to keep up, and hopefully Pegula will be able to keep this team steered in the right direction. So far, their big offseason splashes haven't panned out, and its time to wonder if the Sabres should look to moving either Miller or Enroth to bring in some good return

Calgary Flames
- Pros
    - Calgary and Edmonton can continue their battle of Alberta in Conference A as both teams stayed together.
    - Calgary and Los Angeles ended up in the same division, which will bring us the battle of the Sutter's. This will definitely bring us some intense matchups
- Cons
    - As mentioned above with Anaheim, Calgary will definitely struggle to make the playoffs in the near future. With their superstar Jarome Iginla getting older and no real future set in place, the Flames are not in position to compete in the division. Teams like San Jose, Vancouver, Los Angeles, and even Edmonton and Colorado are in better positions down the road to compete for those 4 playoff spots so it will be interesting to see how Calgary adapts to this situation.

Carolina Hurricanes
- Pros
    - The biggest pro for the Hurricanes is the fact that they get to bring every team into their building at least once. Carolina is 26th in the NHL this year in attendance and will benefit greatly from having Western powers Chicago, Detroit, San Jose, and Vancouver in their building once every year as well as having Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, the Flyers, and the Rangers in their division.
    - The Hurricanes will reduce their travel from this year as they no longer have to deal with trips to Winnipeg.
- Cons
    - The bad news for the Hurricanes is that I can't see them making the playoffs any time soon. Yes this team has young talent in Jeff Skinner, but having to contend with the Penguins, Capitals, Rangers, and Flyers, will be a nightmare for them. Unless one of those teams contends with serious injuries, I can't foresee a scenario in which any team but those 4 would qualify for the playoffs in that conference.

Chicago Blackhawks
- Pros
   - Chicago keeps its resurgent rivalry with the Red Wings. Ever since Chicago returned to prominence, the games between the Red Wings and Blackhawks have been some of the best in the NHL and it was almost imperative for the NHL to keep these two teams together
    - Chicago will also benefit from a reduction in travel as the number of West Coast swings will be reduced.  However, Chicago still gets to keep its rivalry with Vancouver going as Vancouver will visit the United Center once every year.
- Cons
   - This is another tough division. As of today, if the playoffs started under the current format, 6 of these 8 teams would be in the playoffs, with Winnipeg being 9th in the East and Columbus being the only team that's well out of it. Chicago will have to contend with the reality that all 38 of their conference games will be played against potential playoff contenders and there will be no cake walks in this division. A down year in any way, and Chicago could miss the playoffs.

Colorado Avalanche
- Pros
   - Colorado will get to bring every team into its building, which will hopefully help them increase their atrocious attendance. Colorado used to be an NHL powerhouse, but of late, they have not been great and their attendance has reflected that. Colorado is 23rd in the NHL this year and that's the highest they've been since 2007-2008, the last time they got out of the 1st round of the playoffs.
   - Colorado will get to keep most of its divisional members as Calgary, Vancouver, and Edmonton will be in the same division.
- Cons
   - Colorado has a solid young team, but in this division, it will be very difficult to make the playoffs. San Jose and Vancouver seem to have 2 of the 4 spots locked up for the near future. Colorado will have to contend with Phoenix, Edmonton, and Los Angeles for the final 2 spots in that conference.
   - Colorado will have to make more Eastern Conference swings as they now have to visit every Eastern Conference team at least once.
   - Colorado and Detroit will no longer meet 3 or 4 times a year as they had been the past few years, leading us to believe that this once fierce rivalry will never be rekindled.

Columbus Blue Jackets
- Pros
   - The biggest winner attendance-wise should be the Columbus Blue Jackets as they now get to bring every team into their building and hopefully that should increase their attendance. If not, this may be a team that might need to get relocated to another Canadian city, perhaps Hamilton? Since the lockout, Columbus has not finished higher than 17th in attendance, and have been in the bottom 5 the past 3 years. Hopefully, by keeping Chicago and Detroit in their division and getting to have all the Eastern Conference superstars come into their building once a year, the attendance will rise in Columbus
- Cons
   - Unfortunately, while their attendance might receive a boost, it is very difficult to see Columbus making the playoffs any time soon. With Detroit, Chicago, Nashville, St. Louis, Winnipeg, Dallas, and Minnesota in their division, it's hard to see Columbus finishing better than last in the division, let alone in the top 4 to qualify for the playoffs. This makes me think that Columbus might soon get relocated to a fan base that can actually support the team and bolster their return back to the playoffs.

Dallas Stars
- Pros
   - Another winner in the attendance department. Dallas, like Colorado, used to be a powerhouse in the Western Conference, but in recent years has struggled to maintain success. Even this year with Dallas being in the playoff hunt, their attendance is 2nd to last in the NHL.  Even in 2007-2008 when the team reached the conference finals, Dallas ranked only 18th in the NHL in attendance. Hopefully the opportunity to bring every team into their building as well as being in a division with Detroit and Chicago will help bring those attendance numbers up. This is a city that is capable of supporting an NHL team as Dallas used to be a regular in the top 10 in attendance.
   - Dallas gets to have Minnesota in their division, which can start a rivalry between the former Minnesota North Stars and the Minnesota Wild. These games have been intense over the years and this rivalry has the opportunity to grow.
- Cons
   - This will be a very competitive division for Dallas and it will be very difficult to get into the playoffs. Even if they do manage to sneak into the playoffs as the 3rd or 4th seed, they will almost be guaranteed a matchup with either Detroit or Chicago, which will make it very difficult for the Stars to get through the playoffs and build back their bandwagon.
    - Dallas will probably have to do the most travel out of any of the teams in this division as they are geographically the furthest away from the other teams.

Detroit Red Wings
- Pros
   - The Red Wings got the realignment that they wanted. They will have fewer Western swings, more games in the Eastern time zone, and they got to keep their rivalry with Chicago. This realignment plan was heavily centered around the Red Wings and their wishes.
    - The recent surge in attendance by the Red Wings fans can only be boosted by being guaranteed to see every team in the NHL at least once a year. The economic situation in Detroit has made it difficult for fans to get to the games, but recently, the sellout streak has started back up and seeing every team can only help
   - Also for the playoffs, they are pretty much guaranteed not to have a playoff game start later than 9:30 for the first two rounds as the first two rounds are divisional.
- Cons
    - As mentioned before several times, Conference B will be a very difficult conference that may require 100 points just to qualify. With many of Detroit's superstars starting to hit the downward part of their careers, the onus will be on Ken Holland to continue to rebuild on the fly as he has for the past 10 years in order to stay competitive

Edmonton Oilers
- Pros
   - As mentioned before, they will keep the battle of Alberta with Calgary.
   - Don't know if this will be a factor at all, but Edmonton and LA do have a bit of bad blood going between them since the Ryan Smyth-Colin Fraser trade. There is the potential for a rivalry to develop here if these teams are forced to play each other 5-6 times a year.
- Cons
    - Once again, the real loser in this realignment scheme were all of the up and coming teams. A team like Edmonton that has so many young guns but just isn't ready to win on the big stage will struggle in this realignment scheme as only 4 teams from a conference can make the playoffs. That means they will have to be better than Vancouver, San Jose, Phoenix, and LA, 4 teams that have made the playoffs the past couple of seasons.

Florida Panthers
- Pros
   - Florida is a young team that is coming into its own this year. They've gotten solid goaltending, timely goal scoring, and a very productive defense. This new realignment scheme will give them a chance to contend for a playoff scheme as the only established contender is Boston. Tampa, Buffalo, and Montreal have all had their ups and downs so Florida is being given a legitimate chance to qualify for the playoffs. Panthers fans, get your rats out!
   - For attendance purposes, Florida is another winner as they get to bring in every team to their building as well as getting several matchups a year with Boston, Toronto, and Ottawa.
- Cons
   - As they are being given a shot in this division, so are Toronto, Ottawa, and Buffalo. There are 3 playoff spots up for grabs and Florida will have to contend with several other up and coming teams. Whichever teams progress and gel faster will get the inside track to those playoff spots so it will be imperative for Florida to build off whatever momentum they generate from this season. They are currently leading their division, and if they can take that all the way to the playoffs and add another high profile free agent, this team will be set for the future

Los Angeles Kings
- Pros
   - As mentioned with Edmonton, Los Angeles might develop a rivalry with Edmonton as bad blood definitely exists between the two teams after the botched trade this offseason.
   - Los Angeles will get to add another high profile team to its conference in Vancouver which can only bolster their middle of the pack attendance numbers (14th)
- Cons
  - Well if Los Angeles didn't have enough problems on its hand. The team already can't score and now it has to play in a division that has Vancouver, San Jose, and Edmonton, all in the top 1/3rd of the NHL in scoring. Also 5 of the other 7 teams are in the top half of the NHL in defense, so Los Angeles is going to have to solve their scoring woes before they get into that division next year, otherwise they are in big trouble
  - Los Angeles will also have to make more cross country trips as they are required to make a trip to every Eastern Conference building.

Minnesota Wild
- Pros
   - Minnesota is another big winner in this realignment. They get to build a rivalry with the Stars, minimize their travel, add more games against Chicago and Detroit, and they get games against every team in their building. What more could Wild fans want? With the team peaking this season, they could make it very interesting next year with Detroit and Chicago in competition for the top 2 spots in the conference.
- Cons
   - The only downside is that if Minnesota can't build on their strong regular season this year and then gets moved into a conference that has Detroit, Chicago, Nashville, and St. Louis, they could find themselves hard pressed to make the playoffs on a regular basis.

Montreal Canadiens
- Pros
   - The rivalry with the Bruins can continue. Those have been some of the most physical regular season games and it would have been a shame to lose them. For our benefit, they shall continue.
   - Montreal gets to also keep its rivalry with Toronto and as Toronto gets better, these games will get fiercer.
- Cons
   - Again, the fact that only 4 teams can make the playoffs from each conference will hurt the Canadiens. This seems to be a team loaded with bad contracts and on their way down instead of up. Having to contend with Boston, Buffalo, Florida, Toronto, and Tampa will make it very difficult for the Canadiens to sneak in.

Nashville Predators
- Pros
   - The Predators keep Chicago and Detroit in their division which is important for their attendance figures
   - The Predators get to add another big attendance draw in Winnipeg as that team's fan base travels fairly well
   - The amount of travel is minimized for the Predators and they get more games in the Eastern time zone
- Cons
  - The tough Central Division got that much tougher with the additions of Dallas, Minnesota, and Winnipeg, 3 teams that are currently in playoff contention under the current format. Nashville has been a playoff regular this past decade but it will be that much tougher to get in. The Predators will be forced to spend money in order to keep pace in this conference.

New Jersey Devils
- Pros
   - The Devils have had attendance problems this entire decade and being in a division with Crosby, the Rangers, and the Flyers clearly hasnt helped. Well, lets add Alexander Ovechkin and the Capitals and see if those numbers can't improve at all.
   - The Devils keep their entire Atlantic Division together and keep all the rivalries that have been forged.
- Cons
   - As mentioned before, Conference D is loaded. The Rangers, Penguins, Capitals, and Flyers all seem to have the inside track to playoff spots and they will have to compete with the up and coming

New York Islanders
- Pros
   - The Islanders get to keep the entire Atlantic division as well as adding the Washington Capitals as a draw. Hopefully they can parlay this into better attendance numbers or at least a better reasoning as to why they need a new building out there.
- Cons
   - Another up-and-comer that will suffer because of this realignment. The Islanders are not too far away from contending, but by being cast into a division that has the Penguins, Flyers, Rangers, and Capitals, it's going to be very difficult for the Islanders to post a winning season, let alone get into the playoffs with 24 of their games coming against the Penguins, Capitals, Rangers, and Flyers.

New York Rangers
- Pros
   - The Rangers get to keep their Atlantic Division "buddies" in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and those rivalries will continue to grow as the Rangers start to reach the level that the Flyers and Penguins have been on for the past few years.
   - The Rangers get the opportunity to forge a rivalry with another Eastern power in Washington
- Cons
   - Tough going for the playoffs, but if the Rangers keep playing the way they are playing, they should be able to get into the playoffs
   - Increased travel as they have to get out West to meet every team

Ottawa Senators
- Pros
   - They keep fellow compatriots in Toronto and Montreal.
   - They are put in a division where they have an opportunity to succeed in the near future
- Cons
    - They will not only have increased intradivisional travel, but they will also have increased travel to other teams. They have to make trips to Florida as well as to all the Western Conference teams which will put a little more strain on this team. However, they are young and should be able to handle it.
    - They are racing with Toronto, Buffalo, and Florida for the 3 remaining playoff spots (Boston has one). Their development will be key for their future and I think they are slightly behind Toronto, Florida, and Buffalo.

Philadelphia Flyers
- Pros
   - One of the biggest concerns for the Flyers was that they were not going to be able to stay in the same division as the Penguins. Instead, not only do they get to stay with the Penguins, they get to stay with the Rangers, and they add the Capitals. Not bad for the Flyers.
- Cons
   - Well hopefully the Flyers did not bite off more than they can chew. They are stuck in a very competitive conference and will have to most likely finish with more than 100 points in order to qualify for the playoffs. They are young up front and will have to keep their defense up in order to maintain success in this new format.
   - They will have more of a travel burden as they have to travel to every team out West

Phoenix Coyotes
- Pros
   - Phoenix will have an opportunity to keep its unlikely run of playoff appearances going this year. If they can manage to do it again, they will have an opportunity to extend that streak in their new conference. Aside from Vancouver and San Jose, the final two spots are up for grabs and Phoenix has to feel good about their chances. They know what it takes and Dave Tippett's system allows them to always be competitive.
   - Phoenix will also have a chance to build upon their much maligned attendance as they now welcome every team to their building which can hopefully boost attendance sales from traveling fans.
- Cons
   - They have been put in a conference with some puck possession teams, meaning that it will be harder for Phoenix to play their system as well (see what Detroit has done to them with puck possession the last two years, then look at Vancouver and San Jose).
   - Phoenix will have to travel a lot as it now has to make trips to the East Coast with more regularity.

Pittsburgh Penguins
- Pros
   - I think the Penguins can be considered a big winner in this realignment scheme. They keep their rivalry with the Flyers, continue to establish their rivalry with the Rangers, and add the Washington Capitals and that heated rivalry to their conference.
- Cons
   - The Penguins will have to do some more traveling under this new scheme. The West Coast trips might wear this team down over the long haul
   - The Penguins will most likely have to run through two of the three following teams just to make the Conference Finals --> Rangers, Flyers, Capitals. That's not an envious task for anybody and that's just to get to the Conference Finals.

St. Louis Blues
- Pros
   - Keeps Central Division foes Detroit and Chicago around. Chicago and St. Louis have been having some tough games of late and that's something that could be built on as St. Louis continues to improve
   - Travel is minimized for this team as they don't have to go far out West as much
- Cons
   - Playoff spots will be at a premium and St. Louis will have to compete with Minnesota, Dallas, and Nashville for the 2 spots after Detroit and Chicago at least for the near future.

San Jose Sharks
- Pros
   - Get to add Vancouver to their conference which will allow that rivalry to continue.
   - Has the opportunity to continue their playoff streak as they should be able to stay in the top 4 without too much trouble in the near future
- Cons
   - Travel is going to be a big thing for San Jose. They will have to go out East a couple of times during the year and that will be some serious mileage.

Tampa Bay Lightning
- Pros
   - Tampa has an opportunity to succeed in their new conference with Boston being the only true power in their conference. The other 3 spots are open and Tampa has as good a chance as any
   - Tampa gets an opportunity to forge a rivalry with Boston if the two teams can meet in the playoffs a couple times in a row. Last season's series was very good, but these two have a chance to take it to another level.
- Cons
   - Tampa will have to travel a lot more as it has some Canadian teams in its Conference as well as having to make trips out west.

Toronto Maple Leafs
- Pros
   - The Maple Leafs get to stay in the same division as Montreal and Boston, two teams that they have had strong clashes with over the past few years.
   - The Maple Leafs will also have the opportunity to continue to grow and make the playoffs in the near future. Their conference is one of the more wide open conferences and they have every opportunity to succeed.
   - The Maple Leafs will also get to renew the Original 6 rivalries with Chicago and Detroit by getting to play a home and away series with them
- Cons
   - The Maple Leafs will be one of the Eastern teams that has to do a lot of traveling.

Vancouver Canucks
- Pros
   - Get to move into a conference with San Jose to potentiate that rivalry after last year's excellent series.
   - Get to have every team come into their building
- Cons
   - That conference will require close to 100 points in order to get into the playoffs.
   - The Canucks will have to travel more when they head out east

Washington Capitals
- Pros
   - They get to move into a conference  with the Penguins which means more Penguins-Caps games for all the fans to enjoy
   - Also they get to have more games with the Rangers and Flyers which will be loads of fun for all fans
- Cons
   - If Washington fans thought this season was rough, wait until 18 (22%) of their games come agains the Penguins, Rangers, and Flyers.  Another 10 games will come against Detroit, Chicago, Boston, Vancouver, and San Jose. The Capitals better find their game soon, otherwise they will get passed by the Islanders, Hurricanes, or Devils.

Winnipeg Jets
- Pros
   - First the team comes back, and now you get to play in a division with Detroit, Chicago, Minnesota and St. Louis. It's like the old Norris division from the early '80's. That should keep the Winnipeg train going and keep the fans coming out.
- Cons
   - Winnipeg fans, soak up the potential for playoffs this year because in the next few years that might be hard to come by. Winnipeg definitely drew the short straw, getting cast into a division with perennial powerhouses Detroit and Chicago as well as perennial playoff contenders in Nashville and Minnesota. Finally the Blues, Stars, and Blue Jackets are on their way to being contenders. Winnipeg will definitely have to fight as hard as they can to make the playoffs with any regularity.

So there you have it. That's how realignment will affect each team and I'll give 5 my big winners and my 5 big losers from this new scheme here:

Winners (in no particular order)
1. Detroit
2. Boston
3. Chicago
4. Pittsburgh
5. Toronto

Losers (in no particular order)
1. Washington
2. Winnipeg
3. Minnesota
4. Edmonton
5. New York Islanders